Ceiling, floor for Drake Maye, Bo Nix and more top QBs in 2024 NFL Draft

The incoming quarterback class is expected to be among the strongest position groups in the 2024 NFL Draft. While some of the QBs could develop into stars, it's unlikely that all of them succeed. 

See our grades for 15 QBs taken in the first round of the past five drafts.

With that in mind, here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for each of the top six QB prospects entering the NFL. The first round of the draft begins on April 25 in Detroit.

Caleb Williams, USC | 6-foot-1, 215 pounds

Ceiling: A blend of the Jets' Aaron Rodgers and Steelers' Russell Wilson

The presumptive No. 1 pick has been regarded as the closest prospect we've seen to Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes.

Despite this, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler recently reported that Rodgers is Williams's most common player comparison among scouts and executives while others liken him to Wilson, and it's not hard to understand why. 

Aside from the similar frame Williams shares with the future Hall of Famers, all three players can make every throw on the field and use their creativity in the pocket to make spectacular plays.

Considering that Williams is entering what may be the best situation of any quarterback drafted first overall in NFL history, it wouldn't be surprising if his transition to the league is relatively seamless. If Chicago's offseason additions pan out and GM Ryan Poles continues acquiring high-end talent, perhaps Williams can lead the Bears to a Super Bowl title on his rookie deal as Wilson did in Seattle. 

Floor: Arizona's Kyler Murray with more team success

If Williams doesn't live up to his immense hype, he'll probably still be one of the NFL's better quarterbacks, roughly in the same tier as Murray. The Arizona quarterback may not be a superstar, but he's a star who is one of the best improvisers at the position and earned himself a five-year, $230.5M extension. 

Yet, given the talent of Chicago's roster compared to the Arizona teams Murray — whose career record as a starter is 28-36-1 — has played on, Williams should be more successful. 

Jayden Daniels, LSU | 6-foot-4, 210 pounds

Ceiling: Lite version of Baltimore's Lamar Jackson

The 2023 Heisman Trophy Winner finished his collegiate career as the only player in FBS history to throw for at least 12,000 yards and rush for 3,000 yards. Daniels' game-changing rushing ability will instantly make him a dynamic weapon in the NFL, even if the talent around him is underwhelming, similar to Jackson's impact in Baltimore. 

Even so, Jackson was a much more polished version of Daniels coming out of Louisville, and the two-time MVP's strengths are arguably some of the LSU product's biggest weaknesses. In particular, Jackson better understands when to use his legs and excels in the intermediate passing game, which Daniels struggles mightily with. 

Floor: Pittsburgh's Justin Fields with better accuracy 

As mentioned, Daniels isn't as methodical a rusher as Jackson, usually opting to immediately take off when his receivers aren't open, regardless of whether the pocket is clean. These actions have resulted in him absorbing several big hits that he won't be able to take in the NFL. 

Fields' overreliance on his legs and inability to read defenses well were some of the most important factors that led the Bears to trade him to Pittsburgh earlier this offseason. Since Daniels is a more accurate passer than Fields, he should have more leeway as a starter than the ex-Bear had in Chicago.

Drake Maye, UNC | 6-foot-4, 230 pounds 

Ceiling: Green Bay's Jordan Love

While Maye has drawn comparisons to Pro Bowler Josh Allen since the Buffalo QB was also a raw prospect, it's fair to say the former Tar Heel is much more of a project. Maye probably won't have the luxury of sitting for three seasons to develop as Love did, though by the time his fourth season rolls around, he could make a case for being a top NFL quarterback. 

In his first season as a full-time starter, Love finished seventh in passing yards (4,159) and second in touchdown passes (32) en route to leading Green Bay to the NFC divisional round. 

Floor: Minnesota's Sam Darnold

In light of how much of a project Maye might turn out to be if he's quickly thrown into the fire by a team with a weak supporting cast, the results could be disastrous. Like Maye, Darnold was considered an elite prospect coming out of college with a slow throwing motion, but he had the necessary size and tools to develop into an elite signal-caller eventually. 

However, Darnold had little help and success playing for the dysfunctional Jets, posting a 13-25 record as a starter over three seasons before being traded to Carolina. Following stints with the Panthers and 49ers, Darnold now finds himself as the presumptive starter for Minnesota. If Maye fails during his first NFL stop, it wouldn't be shocking if he bounces around the league as a bridge starter for teams hoping to salvage some of his potential, mainly because of his draft status. 

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan | 6-foot-3, 202 pounds

Ceiling: A blend of 2005 No. 1 pick Alex Smith and Detroit's Jared Goff

Since he was a game manager at Michigan, the national championship-winning quarterback is seen as a boom-or-bust prospect. McCarthy has the arm strength and intangibles that NFL teams are looking for, but he only threw for 2,991 yards with 22 touchdowns last season, and that lack of production has caused him to be scrutinized. 

The term "game manager" gets thrown around as an insult to QBs, yet Smith and Goff proved over time that it doesn't necessarily mean one can't be a successful quarterback. After all, both players each led two different franchises to the playoffs, and Goff's rise has put Detroit in a position to contend for multiple Super Bowls. As long as McCarthy takes care of the ball the way he did in college, he could follow a similar career path to the former No. 1 picks and help his team be a consistent postseason participant. 

Floor: Former NFL QB Colt McCoy

Should McCarthy prove to be a bust, chances are he'll enjoy a long career as a backup. The 21-year-old's experience running a pro-style offense would be a welcome addition to any quarterback room. If he ends up as a career second-stringer, McCarthy should, at the very least, be able to keep a team afloat if the starter goes down, provided that his playmakers aren't abysmal. 

Michael Penix Jr., Washington | 6-foot-3, 213 pounds

Ceiling: Former NFL QB Sam Bradford 

Although it's impossible to predict injuries, Penix's extensive history of knee and shoulder issues raises serious questions about his durability. Still, Penix is arguably the best deep-ball thrower in this year's draft and could be a productive passer when healthy, much like Bradford — another oft-injured quarterback with a strong arm. 

Bradford, the No. 1 pick in 2010, threw for at least 3,500 yards in each of the four seasons he was healthy enough to start at least 14 games. 

Floor: Houston's Case Keenum

After thriving in a pass-happy offense at Houston, Keenum has enjoyed short periods of success in the NFL and is now entering his 12th season. Unlike the case with many other backups and career journeymen, offensive coordinators have typically allowed Keenum to air the ball out often when allowed to start. At worst, Penix should be one of the more serviceable backups in the league, capable of occasionally delivering stellar performances. 

Bo Nix, Oregon | 6-foot-2, 217 pounds

Ceiling: Free agent Ryan Tannehill

Thanks to his pinpoint accuracy and solid mobility, Nix — the NCAA season record holder for completion rate (77.4%) — can succeed in a perfect situation. Tannehill, a bust with the Miami Dolphins, emerged as a slightly above-average quarterback after being traded to the Titans in 2019. Over his first three seasons with Tennessee, Tannehill posted a 30-13 record as a starter, throwing for 10,295 yards, 76 touchdowns and 27 interceptions in that span. 

Floor: Jacksonville's Mac Jones, minus the Pro Bowl nod

Nix is accurate, but his arm strength is questionable since he doesn't throw the ball with enough velocity to push the ball downfield with ease. According to Pro Football Focus, Nix's average depth of target last season was 6.8 yards, the lowest among this year's quarterback class. 

Similarly, the biggest knock on Jones' game was his arm strength while his accuracy was his strongest quality. Even though Jones was a Pro Bowler as a rookie, if Nix lands with a team lacking a decent receiving corps, he could quickly resemble the Jones of his final two seasons in New England. That's why he's now a backup for the Jaguars.