Pelicans vs. Thunder: Game 2 prediction, odds, pick for Wednesday 4/24

Pelicans vs. Thunder Game 2 Odds

Wednesday, April 24, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans played a great defensive game and probably should have won Game 1 if they could’ve made a few more wide open 3s and layups. They had every opportunity to win that game late, but unfortunately they turned the ball over multiple times late and ultimately choked in clutch time.

Still, the Pelicans showed they are more than capable of hanging with and beating this Thunder team. I’d argue their biggest edge is down low and on the glass with Jonas Valanciunas dominating the boards in Game 1.

Valanciunas racked up 20 rebounds in just 29 minutes of play, and the Pelicans as a team rebounded 36% of their misses, which is a terrific rate. Valanciunas made great decisions with the ball and barrelled his way to the rim multiple times, but he was just incapable of finishing around the rim.

The Pelicans would be wise to stick with Valanciunas usage here, and this will determine their ability to generate efficient offense.

The process in Game 1 with Valanciunas was great, but they just shot awfully from the field on quality looks. Whether or not the Pelicans are wise enough to not panic and stick with that Game 1 process will decide whether they have a chance to pull the upset.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder shot poorly as well by converting on just 32% of their 3s and posting a 49% Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%). One area of concern for the Thunder was the fact that the Pelicans did a pretty good job forcing them off the 3-point line and into tough contested 2s. The Thunder had a low 35% 3-point Attempt Rate and also shot a poor 46% at the rim.

The reason they won the game was due to their efficiency in the midrange, where they shot 56% for the game. I think we can expect the Thunder to improve their offense a little bit here as they are unlikely to shoot that poorly from 3 and at the rim in back-to-back games.

The Thunder will need to do a better job rebounding here if they want to go up 2-0 in this series as I do have confidence that the Pelicans will make some more of these layups and 3s as well.

Pelicans vs. Thunder

Betting Pick & Prediction

I like the Pelicans moneyline and over 210.5 here. I’d rather play the Pelicans moneyline than the spread due to the Matt Mitchell rule — where underdogs that cover also win outright at higher rates in the playoffs.

I felt the Pelicans got higher quality shots in Game 1, and I'm expecting positive regression from Herb Jones, Valanciunas, and CJ McCollum here.

The total being set at 210.5 feels like a slight overreaction to outlier poor shooting games from both teams in Game 1. This aggressive five-point move to the under doesn’t make much sense based on what I saw in terms of shot quality from each team.

Pick: Over 210.5 | Pelicans ML +260